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    December 21

    反思新能源



    油价屡创新高的时候,新能源是一个很受追捧的概念。无论是煤变油还是玉米变油,只要能够以低于燃料油的成本制造出燃料油的替代品,就是一门稳赚不赔的生意。然而石油价格最后却跌下来了,并且接连跌破了不少替代能源的成本底线。这不由得让我们重新思考,新能源的意义。
    人类历史的发展中,能源的发展总是重要的动力之一。然而,我们这几年追逐新能源的动机却异常单纯:为了寻找更低成本的替代品。这一追逐随着矿物燃料价格的暴跌已经变得没有意义了。
    烧柴比烧煤便宜,可是人类的进步却是从烧柴到烧煤;马车比汽车便宜,可是人类的进步却是从马车到汽车。从这样的角度来讲,煤变油这样的所谓新能源项目从一开始就走错了方向。从历史的角度来讲,我们需要的并不是便宜一点的能源,而是那些能量更大、更容易储存、功率更大、体积更小、对外界环境依赖性更小、以及更便于移动的能源,这样的能源也许价格更加昂贵,但是却能够带来一些令人向往的变化,使得我们愿意付出更昂贵的价格。
    正因为如此,人类对新能源的探索并不会因为矿物燃料的价格下跌而停止。但是,好的新能源并不在于价格比现有的能源便宜一些,而是在于能够做到过去的能源所不能做到的某些有意义的事情。

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    Simón Shangwrote:
    未来是光明的,发展是曲折的。
    Dec. 21

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