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    March 10

    如果欧美走出恐慌

    进入2009年以来,各国股市四处呈现出了一种有意思的规律:股市走势的强弱与他们与中国的距离成反向关系:沪深股市已经展开了强劲的中期反弹;亚太股市则开始有触底企稳的迹象;欧美呢?则陷入了新一轮的恐慌。

    如果说欧洲市场的打击主要来自于东欧国家偿债能力危机的话,那么美国的恐慌在我们看来则有一些过于包含对抗情绪:政府控制金融也许不是什么好事,但总比坐视信贷市场再次陷入混乱要好很多。

    中国经济的神奇之处在于如果得到了政府的首肯,那么银行就可以毫无顾虑的放贷:是否产生不良贷款并不是最重要的,重要的是产生了不良贷款是否会被追究责任——对于国有控股的银行来讲,为响应国家政策而产生的不良贷款,有什么好追究呢?更何况贷款一放出去,银行就开始计算利润,信贷员就开始计算业绩。如此放贷救经济真是难得的利人利己的好事,我们至少可以看见眼前的经济似乎在回暖。一个过半数人挣扎在贫困线上的国家居然成为了世界抗击经济衰退的希望所在,不知道这应该算是童话还是笑话。

    如果此刻欧美能够走出恐慌,那么对于在反弹中途陷入僵局的沪深股市也许是一股新的动力,不过更加长远的问题,还不是那么值得乐观……

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